My View: GOP must win back Latino vote
Of all the disasters that befell Republicans this November, none was worse than their drubbing in the Western states. John McCain's showing in California was the worst in a two-candidate race since Franklin Roosevelt beat Alf Landon in 1936.
Republicans lost badly in the formerly GOP states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado – and would have lost Arizona had McCain not headed the ticket.
This terrible Republican showing in the West is the direct result of the GOP's alienation of Latino voters. According to exit polls, the shift of Latino voters who supported President George W. Bush in 2004 to Barack Obama in 2008 accounts for the GOP losses in Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico – all states Bush carried in 2004.
The numbers tell the story. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials estimates that between 9.6 million and 11 million Latinos voted in 2008, compared with 7.6 million in 2004. In 2004, Bush won well over 40 percent of the Latino vote – he had championed comprehensive immigration reform and had good rapport with Latinos from his years as governor of Texas, This year, Obama won 66 percent of Latino votes, according to exit polls. He won Florida Latinos – that includes both Cuban Americans and other Latinos – by 15 points. Bush had carried the Florida Latino vote by 12 points in 2004, and solid Cuban American support was responsible for Bush's tiny Florida margin in 2000. Obama's Latino margin was enough to give him Florida's 27 electoral votes.
It was even worse in other heavily Latino states. Not only did Obama carry New Mexico by a wide margin, but Republicans lost every federal office in that state: both of their congressional districts and their U.S. Senate seat. For the first time in four decades, there are no New Mexico Republicans in Congress.
In Colorado, another state with a growing Latino population, Republicans have lost both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship and a majority in the congressional delegation in just the past four years. Obama carried Nevada in a landslide, and Republicans lost one of their two House seats there. While McCain carried his home state of Arizona, Democrats have picked up three congressional districts in the past two cycles.
What can Republicans do to reverse this trend? Well, they are lucky; the voters seem to be doing it for them. One of the more avid immigrant-bashers this cycle was Lou Barletta, the GOP mayor of Hazelton, Pa. He ran against a weak Pennsylvania Democrat, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, highlighting his opposition to immigration in Pennsylvania. He was expected to win. He lost. A number of other hard-line conservatives, including Reps. Bill Sali in Idaho and Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, were also defeated.
The huge Democratic numbers in both the U.S. House and Senate mean that some sort of immigration reform with amnesty for workers illegally in this country will pass and be signed into law by President Obama. Republicans will play no role in government for the next two years, so Democratic votes will be sufficient to pass comprehensive immigration reform.
That will help, and the natural conservatism of many Latino voters may draw them back to Republican candidates once amnesty for illegal immigrants recedes. There are opportunities for Republicans to build bridges with Latinos. Exit polls show that Latinos narrowly approved Proposition 8 to ban gay marriage, and they probably voted heavily for Proposition 4, for parental notification on abortion (Latinos certainly have in the past). There is strong social conservatism among California Latinos.
Ronald Reagan's blend of conservative values and economic opportunity appealed to emerging middle-class Latinos in the 1970s and 1980s, and they rewarded him with hefty votes.
But before this happens, Republicans must rid themselves of their nativist impulses. "It's hard to vote for a party that says they are going to deport your loved ones," says Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice, an immigrant advocacy group.
And defeat may be the best disinfectant. It is an open question whether California Republicans will seriously contest for the governorship or Sen. Barbara Boxer's seat in 2010, but it is readily apparent that they have no chance to win without attracting a major share of California's Latino voters.
In fact, no Republican has ever won statewide in California without about 35 percent of the Latino vote, and that was true when Latinos were a small slice of California voters. That is certainly true today when Latinos accounted for 18 percent of California voters in 2008, according to exit polls.
So the die is cast. If Republicans are to be a significant political party in America, and certainly in California, they must find a way to attract conservative, middle-class Latino voters. If they don't, history's trash heap surely awaits them.
Tony Quinn is co-editor of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan analysis of legislative and congressional elections.
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